In any international discussion about the threat posed by ISIS Central Asian states have their role to play.
At a time when the international community is discussing the threat posed by ISIS (also known as Islamic State or IS), it is important to recognise that this problem does not concern only the West and the Middle East. Central Asian states also have their role to play.
President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have stressed the need for a broad coalition to deal with the ISIS threat so that their actions are not viewed as Western-driven. But, as of yet, this coalition has only included traditional allies and prominent Arab states. Central Asia cannot be left out of this political alliance, particularly when the region faces a number of challenges that can be seen as directly related to ISIS: dealing with returning fighters that have fought in the ranks of ISIS; the increased radicalisation of youth and a small minority of women; the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, and the subsequent resurgence of regional terrorist groups, specifically the IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan).
A Tajik national has been appointed as the ‘Emir’ of Raqqa, the largest Syrian province under the control of IS.
Central Asian ISIS recruits
The threat of ISIS cannot be ignored by Central Asia if only because of the number of people who have left the region to fight in Iraq and Syria. Reports that a Tajik national has been appointed as the ‘Emir’ of Raqqa, the largest Syrian province under the control of the militants, will have deepened concerns. It has been estimated that roughly 100-150 people have left Kazakhstan, according to official reports from October 2013; and 200 from Tajikistan, according to President Rahmon. Erlan Karin, a Middle East expert from Kazakhstan, has also estimated that roughly 500 have left Uzbekistan, 360 from Turkmenistan and 100 from Kyrgyzstan. Of course, while these figures are only rough estimates, they highlight the seriousness of the situation facing Central Asia, given it is these fighters will sooner or later return to the region.
Kyrgyzstan has the added problem of preventing women from being radicalised and leaving the state. The Minister of Internal Affairs reported that since the start of 2014, 145 women had been detained for extremist activities; and in December 2013, women constituted 23% of the 1,700 known Islamic extremists in Kyrgyzstan.
Reasons for radicalisation include the strong presence of ISIS on the Internet. For this reason, states like Tajikistan are focusing on their online counter extremism methods, to prevent their youth from being radicalised. And the region has also made it clear publicly that it is collectively discouraging and condemning the actions of IS on religious grounds. The spokesman for the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan and adviser to the supreme mufti of Kazakhstan, recently criticised IS, stating that'Islamic State’s announcement (about its caliphate) is pure politics that has nothing to do with real Islam.’
These statements have been reinforced by Mufti Usmankhon Alimov, chairman of the Administration of Muslims of Uzbekistan, and Mavlon Mukhtorov, spokesman for the Tajik government's Committee on Religious Affairs and on Harmonisation of Traditions, Celebrations and Rituals. The latter argues that, ‘in the 21st century, Muslims are killing Muslims under the pretext of creating a caliphate. This is a challenge to the entire Muslim community, and they (the insurgents) represent a danger for everyone.’
‘Muslims are killing Muslims under the pretext of creating a caliphate. This is a challenge to the entire Muslim community.’
Such actions have gone some way to show that Central Asia, like the anti-ISIS Western and Middle East coalition, is determined to face the threat of ISIS head on. Bringing Central Asian states into the coalition would strengthen the forces opposing IS. Secretary Kerry’s recent meeting with the Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan on the 23 September to discuss coalition efforts is a promising first step but more needs to be done. If one looks back at the number of high profile visits to the region, with the notable exception of Hilary Clinton’s 2010 visits (post-Wikileaks) to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, and David Cameron’s visit to Kazakhstan in June 2013, there have been significantly few. As yet, there is no clear indication that Central Asian states are being seen as a necessary part of the forces ranged against ISIS.
Finding a solution to the threat of ISIS will in no way be straightforward, and any attempts to bring Central Asian states into the anti-ISIS coalition will be complicated by the need to recognise that they cannot all be grouped into one unified political bloc. But the West nevertheless needs to recognise the importance of Central Asia, particularly if they want Afghanistan and the unity government to survive and recover; an unstable Afghanistan is an opportunity for ISIS.
Turkmenistan’s political isolation and neutrality may have inhibited any diplomatic overtures, but given that Turkmenistan is faced with serious border challenges from Afghanistan, the West needs to step up and offer assistance. If it does not then Turkmenistan might well take matters into their own hands as they have in the Qaisar region of Afghanistan’s Faryab province, where, in the last three months, they have dug trenches, and built fences and roads to strengthen their border. These efforts will help protect Turkmenistan but they cannot be considered a long-term solution when their actions consist of entering into the sovereign territory of another state.
The West thus needs to focus less on creating regional cooperation among the Central Asian states as a bloc, and instead should coordinate and assist the states individually in their policies of dealing with IS.